How it Works

Data Import

Race results are imported by a group of specially trained monkeys who browse the web and racing publications to find the results. The rest of the numbers are crunched by a much more trained group of monkeys in the basement of my house. Please forgive me and let me know if something is incorrect, there is only so much one man can do to train a group of monkeys.

Power Rankings

Everything in the database is given a weighting. This allows us to rank everything because no two things are equal. The database is broken down into three different categories and each influences another. The first category is Driver weight, which is influenced by a drivers finish in different races. The next category is Race weight which is derived from the drivers that start each race. The final category is Results weight, this is calculated how a driver finishes in an individual race.

To start each race is given race weight of 1.0, this will change throughout the iterations but we have to start somewhere.

Next the Results weight is calculated, this is done by taking the race weight and multiplying it times the “points system” that is being used based on a drivers finish for that race. Since we are starting out at 1.0 for a weight it will simply be the Points earned.

Next the Drivers weights are calculated, by taking all of the points earned from each of the driver’s races and dividing by the total races ran. The first iteration things are pretty crude but that will change when we start weighing the races.

Now we are back to the Race weight. This is calculated by taking the Drivers’ weights and adding them together for a given race. Then the numbers are normalized by taking the median of the special event Race weight. This gives us some numbers above 1.0 and below 1.0 keeping our numbers from going through the roof. Weekly events are also handicapped in two ways. The first way to reduce their power related to special events. While some weekly events have fields stronger than some special events, laps, handicapping, and overall atmosphere of a race make them weighted less. Please note, there are several weekly events that by pure field strength alone outweigh many special events. The other way the weekly shows are handicapped is in relation to each other. With the “Free Weighting system”, some tracks weekly shows became so strong that it even brought some of the weaker guys above drivers who were performing much better at a slightly weaker track. Also with the “Free Weight System” drivers were earning more points to start at some tracks than to start at others. Due to geographic location some good drivers race at weaker tracks because they are closer and this is not a fair way to degrade them. So by looking at the numbers I calculated a “Fair Finishing Equivalent”, this was mostly done by feel and judging where other drivers may finish at another track on a weekly basis and reducing their home track “weight”. While no track as a straight correlation to another I feel that they come out pretty close.

Now the Results weights are recalculated, using the same Points System and the newly calculated Race Weights.

Then the Drivers are recalculated and we continue the process until the numbers make no significant change (.01% for all drivers).

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast is pulled from the National Weather Service specifically for the area around the track. Forecasts are updated every three hours.