How It Works
A look behind the curtain at our data processing, ranking algorithms, and simulation models.
Data Import
Race results are imported by a group of dedicated contributors who browse the web and racing publications to find the results. The rest of the numbers are crunched by our data processing engine. Please forgive us and let us know if something is incorrect; we strive for 100% accuracy but with decades of data, occasional errors can occur.
Power Rankings
Like many different forms of competition, Race Stat Central uses a modified version of the ELO rating system for generating our rankings and ratings. We chose the ELO system because it doesn't just look at finishing positions—it adjusts the rating based on the strength of the field.
At the beginning of the season, a driver carries over a percentage of their previous year's rating. New drivers start at a base rating of 1500. Each feature start increases or decreases the rating based on the finish and the ratings of the other competitors.
Ratings are calculated once per week and updated every Friday morning.
Weather Forecast
The weather forecast on our race pages is pulled directly from the National Weather Service, specifically for the GPS coordinates of each track.
By using track-specific data rather than general city forecasts, we provide the most accurate look at potential race-day conditions.
Forecasts are updated automatically every three hours.
Series Predictions
Our series prediction methodology simulates the remaining races in a season 10,000 times to provide the wide range of possibilities you see on the standings pages. These forecasts are based on our advanced Power Rankings system, with data reaching back to 2002.
We use "hot" simulations—meaning if a simulated driver starts a win streak within the simulation, their rating improves for the next simulated race, capturing the momentum shifts inherent in auto racing.
We also model complex series rules, including drop races, attendance bonuses, and heat points for series like the Short Track Super Series and BRP Modified Tour.
The Math
- 10,000 simulations per update
- Dynamic ELO adjustments
- Series-specific tie-breakers
- Bonus & Attendance points